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Bubble burst or billion-dollar bonanza? The fate of India's retail real estate

India's retail landscape is undergoing a massive transformation. Malls are springing up like mushrooms, high-street brands are flooding the market, and e-commerce giants are expanding their physical presence. This boom in retail real estate has investors cheering, but questions linger: is it a sustainable growth story or a bubble waiting to burst?
The Rise
The numbers paint a rosy picture. As per JLL India, retail real estate investments crossed $2.2 billion in 2023, a 67 per cent increase year-on-year. Tier II and III cities are witnessing a surge, with developers recognizing the untapped potential of a growing middle class. The rise of e-commerce, surprisingly, fuels this growth. Physical stores are increasingly seen as experience centers, complementing online sales.
The report says by 2028, supply of retail real estate space will increase almost 45 per cent from the 91 million sq ft in seven major cities. This will be fuelled by developers expanding their retail footprint. The top seven are: Delhi-NCR, Mumbai, Pune, Bengaluru, Kolkata, Chennai, and Hyderabad. The report also highlighted in 2023, 8.7 million sq ft of gross leasing across malls and prominent high streets took place in the top seven cities with Bengaluru leading (33 per cent share), followed by Delhi NCR with 18 per cent share and Mumbai at 17 per cent share. Gross leasing refers to all lease transactions recorded during the period, including confirmed pre-commitments.
Fashion and apparel at 40 per cent had the highest share in total leasing volume. Super value and value fashion segments have witnessed great traction from leading retailers as they are launching their new formats and expanding in this segment.
The boom and growth drivers
Several factors are driving retail growth in India.
Rising disposable incomes: India's growing middle class has more money to spend, creating a demand for modern shopping experiences.
Urbanization: Rapid urbanization is leading to the development of new townships and satellite cities, requiring more retail space.
E-commerce integration: E-commerce giants like Amazon and Flipkart are increasingly investing in physical stores, blurring the lines between online and offline retail. Also, the sector is witnessing innovation in formats, with mixed-use developments, omnichannel experiences, and experiential retail gaining traction.
Government initiatives: Initiatives like Smart Cities Mission and relaxation of FDI norms are attracting investments in retail infrastructure.
Favourable demographics: India boasts a young and aspirational population, with a rising disposable income. This translates to increased spending power and a growing demand for modern retail experiences.
Concerns about a retail bubble waiting to burst
Despite all the optimism and statistics backing it up question linger if this growth is for real or just a bubble waiting to burst. Indeed there are reasons for optimism as India's retail market penetration is still low compared to developed economies, offering immense room for growth. Moreover the rise of omnichannel retail, with seamless integration between online and offline experiences, caters to evolving consumer preferences. And malls are transforming into leisure and entertainment destinations, attracting foot traffic beyond just shopping.
But the doubts are many. A potential economic slowdown could dampen consumer spending, impacting retail sales and occupancy rates. The sector's dependence on consumer spending makes it vulnerable to economic downturns. Rising inflation and interest rates could dampen consumer sentiment. Also, unplanned mall development could lead to oversupply, pushing down rentals and impacting profitability. While investments are high, absorption rates, especially in larger malls, remain a concern. Overbuilding in certain segments could lead to vacancies and declining rentals. While online giants are entering physical retail, they could also disrupt traditional brick-and-mortar stores. The environmental impact of excessive construction and energy consumption in malls needs to be addressed.
Indeed, while there are risks associated with the rise of retail real estate in India, the potential for growth is undeniable. By adopting a balanced approach that considers consumer needs, economic realities, and environmental sustainability, developers can ensure a thriving and sustainable future for this sector.

Bubble burst or billion-dollar bonanza? The fate of India's retail real estate

V2 Retail stages recovery with revenue surge in Q3

Emerging from the shadows of the COVID slump, Indian’s value retailer V2 Retail reported a 56 per cent surge in revenue during Q3 FY24. Primarily driven by a robust performance from its existing stores, the retailer recorded a 47 per cent rise in same-store sales during Q3 and 29 per cent during 9MFY24.

Despite operating in a challenging environment with weak demand in rural and semi-urban India, V2 Retail strategically expanded its network, opening 14 new stores while closing nine underperformers during the April-December 2023 period. This network optimisation boosted the company’s store productivity, contributing to the strong financial performance.

While pricing pressures led to a slight dip in gross margin, the company's focus on quality control yielded positive results. It’s operating profit surged by 60 per cent and net profit improved by 153 per cent.

The company’s consolidated revenue also increased by 35 per cent during 9MFY24, accompanied by a 67 per cent rise in operating profit and a transition from a loss to a profit of Rs 24.1 crore.

V2 Retail is well-positioned to sustain its success in the value retail market by leveraging its established network, offering innovative products, and targeted expansion plans.

V2Retail

Cantabil Retail opens 38th Indian store in Ludhiana

Leading apparel manufacturer and retailer, Cantabil Retail India opened .the brand's 38th store in Punjab in Ludhiana. The store strengthens the brand’s commitment to providing accessible and trendy fashion to customers across the region.

The new store offers a wide range of menswear from formalwear and casuals to partywear and ethnic wear. It also features a dedicated women’s wear collection including workwear dresses and everyday essential. Besides, the store offers a curated selection of shoes, bags, belts and other accessories.  It has dedicated sections for men, women, and children catering to the needs of the entire family.

This new store opening reflects Cantabil's commitment to expanding its retail footprint across India. With ambitious plans for further expansion in the coming years, the brand aims to reach even more customers and offer them a fashionable and affordable shopping experience.

Cantabil Retail opens 38th Indian store in Ludhiana

Footwear brand Sparx launches first experience store in Dwarka

Leading footwear brand, Sparx aims to reshape the Indian retail landscape by launching its first-ever experience store in Vegas Mall, Dwarka. This innovative venture positions Sparx as a brand catering to diverse consumer preferences while venturing into the premium segment.

Ramesh Kumar Dua, Managing Director, Relaxo Footwears, says, the store will serve as a platform to offer unparalleled convenience and choice. It will help Relaxo drive a positive change in the industry, he adds.

Emphashing on Sparx’s foray into premiumization, Gaurav Dua, Executive Director of Relaxo Footwears, adds, the experience store will showcase the finest Sparx products under one roof, providing an interactive experience for the youth to connect with the brand.

By expanding its product portfolio and elevating the retail experience, Sparx aims to solidify its brand presence and cater to the evolving preferences of discerning consumers.

Footwear brand Sparx launches first experience store in Dwarka

Jaypore unveils new e-commerce store in the US

Traditional Indian retailer Jaypore has launched its e-commerce store in the US offering a treasure trove of handcrafted delights to the American market.

The store offers a curated selection of apparel ranging from the intricate patterns of ajrakh and kalamkari to the delicate elegance of Benarasi and chikankari. It also offers a collection of homeware, jewelry, and accessories, made with traditional techniques.

To celebrate the launch of this store, Jaypore is offering free shipping on orders over $100. And for a limited time, its ‘Shades of Love; sale will offer a 15 per cent discount on clothing and jewelry, with an additional 10 per cent off for purchases above $150.

The online store is a one-stop shop for all things Indian. It has dedicated sections for men, women, jewelry, accessories, and home, in addition to the latest collections like the springtime ‘Kashni’ collection for women. Featuring botanical prints on flowy linen-blend garments, this collection offers a fresh and whimsical take on Indian style.

Jaypore unveils new e-commerce store in the US

Cantabil Retail India reports for Q3 FY23

The Q3 FY23 net profit of Cantabil Retail India declined by 11 per cent decline to Rs 24 crore ($3 million) as against a net profit of Rs 27 crore in the year ago period.

The company’s revenue for the quarter rose by 7 per cent to Rs 174 crore, as against Rs 162 crore posted in the October-December quarter of the previous fiscal year.

Vijay Bansal, Chairman and Managing Director, says, the company has demonstrated notable resilience in tough conditions. It delivered admirable financial results with a revenue growth of 11 per cent in 9M FY24 despite muted consumer demand and a warmer winter affecting winter sales.

Looking forward, the company remains cautiously optimistic and plans to provide superior value to its consumers by driving competitive volume growth, and investing in brand development. .It anticipates a rebound in discretionary spend with the onset of the wedding season and late winters, propelling the company’s growth trajectory further in the coming quarters..

From April-Dec, 2023, Cantabil Retail India opened 66 stores taking the total tally to 513 stores as of December 31, 2023. It plans to increase its store count to over 700 in next 2-3 years. 

Cantabil

Westside expands with 229th store in Mohali

A Tata Group-retailer Westside has expanded with its 229th store in Mohali that offers most of the retailer’s brands across apparel, accessories, cosmetics, footwear and HOME sectors.

Spread across 39 sq. ft, the new store delivers an extraordinary retail experience, by offering with contemporary and modern fashion trends at an exceptional value. It offers a seamless shopping experience, with meticulously arranged and clutter-free displays that highlight the newest fashions.

Womenswear brand Utsa from Westside offers a modern solution to the everyday ethnic wardrobe. Another brand Bombay Paisley presents a contemporary, creative, free-spirited and fusion while Vark offers ethnic wear for modern, opulent, warm and sophisticated occasions. Premium day-wear brand Zuba blends elegance with modernity while Nuon reflects youth that engages a social generation.

Menswear brand WES offers a weekend range, along with lounge wear that is comfortable and urban. Nuon Men offers curated streetwear for the millennial while Studio West offers an exclusive range of beauty products not only for Indian women, but for men as well.

Combining fashion and functionality, Westside's kids wear collection showcases a range of charming and trendy outfits including adorable dresses, stylish tops, cozy knitwear and versatile bottoms.

Westside's footwear collection is equally captivating with casual sneakers, elegant heels, sturdy boots and sporty sandals. The store also offers a fantastic selection of home decoration items.

Westside expands with 229th store in Mohali

Trendyol goes exclusive with Myntra in India

Turkish e-commerce giant Trendyol is shifting its focus to Myntra, becoming the platform's exclusive seller in India. This move comes after Trendyol's successful run on Myntra, where it quickly became a top-selling international women's western wear brand.

Trendyol sees India as a key market and wants to solidify its brand recognition. Focusing on one platform allows Trendyol to grow its product catalog growth quickly and access premium customers. Myntra has been a good fit for Trendyol, delivering strong sales and brand performance. Its ‘Beyond Borders’ program provides access to a wider Indian audience.

Trendyol’s move strengthens Myntra's position in the international fashion space. It highlights the growing demand for global brands among young Indian customers.

Trendyol goes exclusive with Myntra in India

V-Mart Retail reports for Q3 2023

Driven by the festive season, V-Mart Retail reported a 41.36 per cent rise in net profit during Q3 2023 performance. The company’s net profit surged to Rs 28.23 crore compared to the same period last year. Its revenue from operations also increased by 14.43 per cent to Rs 889.05 crore.

The company attributed this positive performance to a 23 per cent surge in customer footfall during the festive season. However, a delay in the launch winter collection muted demand, impacting sales in that category.

Despite the muted winter season, V-Mart managed to reduce inventory by 12 per cent compared to the previous quarter. The company’s overall expenses for the quarter increased by 15.18 per cent to Rs 865.20 crore. Its revenue from retail trade stood at Rs 872.04 crore, while revenue from the Limeroad digital marketplace totaled Rs 17.01 crore. The company’s total income during the third quarter ended December 2023 surged by 16 per cent to Rs 902.08 crore.

V-Mart Retail also added 20 new stores during the quarter while closing 3, bringing its total store network to 454.

VMart

CAIT urges CCIT to expedite action against Flipkart, Amazon

Retail traders' body CAIT is urging the Competition Commission of India (CCI) to expedite its investigation into alleged anti-competitive practices by e-commerce giants Flipkart and Amazon. The move comes amid growing concerns about the impact of these platforms on small businesses.

CAIT claims Flipkart and Amazon's practices are causing a loss of livelihood for lakhs of small retailers, amounting to losses of Rs 25,000 crore per month. The industry body has accused the companies of monopolising mobile phone sales through exclusive launches and using shell entities for invoicing. CAIT alleges that most sales on these platforms are conducted by the companies themselves, rendering the ‘marketplace’ label misleading. The letter claims Flipkart and Amazon used frivolous legal challenges to stall the investigation for over 20 months.

The news is likely to be welcomed by small retailers who have long been struggling to compete with e-commerce giants. They may see this as a step towards a fairer market environment. On the other hand, consumers may be concerned about potential impacts on product variety, pricing, and competition if the CCI takes action against Flipkart and Amazon. Flipkart and Amazon are expected to defend their practices and may challenge any potential CCI rulings.

CAIT urges CCIT to expedite action against Flipkart, Amazon

Valentino unveils flagship store in Mumbai

The iconic Italian luxury brand, Valentino, has opened a flagship store in the Jio World Plaza mall in Mumbai.

Launched in collaboration with Reliance Brands, this boutique showcases a curated selection of the brand's coveted womenswear, menswear, and handbags. The store's design echoes Valentino's timeless elegance. It houses a dedicated menswear section that reflects the brand's commitment to crafting sartorial masterpieces, ensuring every detail caters to the discerning gentleman.

The store’s background is painted in black, white, and red hues create a striking
backdrop. Its clear, red, and peach furniture adds a touch of vibrancy, while the central seating area allows customers to relax and contemplate their next purchase in comfort. Geometric, square tiles lend a unique retro touch, completing the store's distinctive aesthetic.

Established in 1960 by Valentino Garavani, Valentino has long been celebrated for its couture and ready-to-wear collections. Renowned for its impeccable tailoring and exquisite use of textiles, the brand continues to captivate hearts with its timeless designs. This Mumbai flagship store is a testament to the brand's dedication to offering a truly unparalleled luxury experience in it.

Valentino unveils flagship store in Mumbai

Discretionary retail slows down in India post pandemic boom

Encompassing apparel, footwear, beauty, and quick service restaurants (QSRs), India's discretionary retail sector witnessed a sharp slowdown in 2023.

Nuanced data-points

Growth in the segment halved to just 9 per cent compared to the previous two years' pandemic-fueled surge. This reflects weakening consumer sentiment, despite continued spending on high-ticket items like cars and electronics aided by easy loans.

Hardest hit was the budget-conscious value category in apparel and footwear, says a report by the Retailers Association of India (RAI).

Same-store sales growth (SSG) for the organised retail sector stood at a meager 2-3 per cent, indicating an underlying drop in demand for everyday items like clothes, shoes, cosmetics, and fast food.

Study

Based on a survey of top 100 modern retailers, the report highlights that like-for-like’ growth remained muted throughout 2023. Though network expansion fueled some growth, it did not reflect organic customer demand.

The sector was further impacted by price hikes in 2022, driven by cotton price surges and rupee depreciation, followed by steep discounts to clear unsold inventory in 2023. The initial pandemic-driven'revenge shopping’ boom, particularly for athleisure wear, also stabilised.

While premium products fared slightly better, the value category remains significantly below pre-pandemic sales levels, explains Kumar Rajagopalan, CEO, Retailers Association of India (RAI).

Mixed bag

Within segments, the apparel and clothing segment grew slowest at 8 per cent, while furniture, sporting goods, and jewelry grew at 12 per cent, and beauty, electronics, and food and grocery grew by 11 per cent each.

 

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