Retail sector to grow to $1.93 trillion by 2030: Deloitte & FICCI
06 October 2025, Mumbai
From a value of $1.06 trillion in 2024, India’s retail sector is projected to grow to $1.93 trillion by 2030, according to a new report by Deloitte and FICCI. Fueled by a 10 per cent CAGR, this phenomenal growth is set to transform the sector into a global retail powerhouse anchored by resilient domestic demand.
The primary drivers of this retail revolution are India’s young, digitally fluent population and rising purchasing power. Retail already contributes over 10 per cent to India’s GDP and is a crucial employment generator.
The expanding middle class and the rising economic influence of Gen Z are keys to this momentum. By 2025, Gen Z alone is expected to account for 43 per cent of total consumption, commanding a direct spending power of $250 billion. Their demand for aspirational, premium, and sustainable products is forcing brands to rapidly evolve their product and sales strategies.
The rapid digitization of the consumer base is accelerating this shift. Online retail is projected to grow from $75 billion in 2024 to a massive $260 billion by 2030, effectively doubling its share of the total retail market from 7 per cent to 14 per cent.
Crucially, this growth is no longer limited to major metros. Tier II and III cities are redefining India’s retail map, now accounting for over 60 per cent of all e-commerce transactions. Retailers are increasingly focused on these emerging markets, as seen by cities like Bengaluru and Hyderabad dominating retail space absorption in 2024.
Perhaps the most exciting innovation is the exponential rise of quick commerce. Growing at a 70 per cent CAGR in over 80 cities, India has become the world’s first scaled quick-commerce market. This model is transforming consumer expectations for instant delivery, boosting FMCG penetration, and creating last-mile jobs.
While domestic consumption remains the sector's bedrock, the report also highlights the growing export potential for ‘Made in India’ products. Evolving Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) and tariff realignments offer Indian goods reduced barriers and cost advantages in global markets. This dual strength positions Indian retailers well to thrive in an era of global trade uncertainty.
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